Marathons, baseball games, and the ends of operas.
Regarding the question of whether you, candidate for the Democratic party’s nomination to the presidency of the United States, should begin planning the victory party or writing the concession speech.
February 10, 1992: Tom Harkin wins the Iowa Democratic caucus in a 76% landslide. “Uncommitted” comes in second with 12%.
February 18, 1992: New Hampshire’s 18 delegates are split evenly between Paul Tsongas and Bill Clinton, despite Tsongas having 9% more of the vote.
February 23, 1992: Jerry Brown narrowly beats Tsongas in Maine. Clinton is a distant third, with half the percentage of either Brown or Tsongas.
February 25, 1992: Bob Kerrey has a commanding 40% victory in South Dakota. Harkin comes in second with 25%, Clinton third with 19%.
March 3, 1992: Seven states hold voting primaries and caucuses — Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Maryland, Minnesota, Utah, and Washington. Tsongas emerges as the big winner, taking Washington, Utah, and Maryland and the highest delegate count on the day. Harkin is second with victories in Minnesota and Idaho. Colorado goes to Jerry Brown; Clinton wins Georgia and takes second place in Colorado and Maryland.
March 7, 1992: Clinton’s first big day in the race as he wins both Wyoming and South Carolina, and takes second place to Tsongas in Arizona.
March 8, 1992: Nevada caucus. Brown comes out on top, with Clinton second and Tsongas third.
March 10, 1992: Super Tuesday. Clinton takes 7 of 10 states, Tsongas the other three. Harkin and Kerrey are essentially out of the picture, and Brown has had much better days on the trail.
March 17, 1992: Michigan and Illinois both go to Clinton. Tsongas takes second place in both states with half each of Clinton’s percentages.
March 19, 1992: Tsongas wins the Democrats Abroad primary, which tallies the will of expatriate voters, two days after deciding to end his campaign entirely. Clinton takes North Dakota.
March 24 – April 6, 1992: Jerry Brown surges with wins in Connecticut, Vermont, and Alaska, leads in the polls for the same-day contests of New York and Wisconsin, and feels confident he can take his home state of California on June 2nd, with its massive 348-delegate prize. Clinton finishes third in the Alaska caucus to a stalwart “Uncommitted” but enjoys a 95% showing in the Puerto Rico primary.
April 7, 1992: Brown stumbles in both Wisconsin and New York, 37-34 and 41-26, respectively.
April 8 – June 9, 1992: Every remaining primary goes to Clinton. Including California.
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January 24 – June 6, 2000: Current vice president Al Gore wins every single primary contest running against New Jersey senator Bill Bradley and raving moonbat Lyndon LaRouche.
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January 3 – June 3, 2008: Barack Obama wins three of the first four states, tying Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. Obama loses to Clinton on delegates but wins on number of states during an absurdly busy, 23-state Super Tuesday, and then sweeps the rest of February. Obama splits March with Clinton four states to three, with only five more delegates than Clinton to show for it. Clinton takes six of the last nine contests and nearly 50 more delegates but fails to overcome Obama’s lead.
BOTTOM LINE
If you like your front-runner, keep fighting for your front-runner.
If you prefer somebody further back in the field, keep fighting for them.
Each of these primary campaigns are fraught and unique and no conclusion is, at this moment, foregone.
Creative Control 